Public Health
Volume 124, Issue 8 , Pages 452-459 , August 2010

Potential number of human cases of H5N1 avian influenza in Egypt

Received 14 July 2009 ,Revised 10 March 2010 ,Accepted 12 April 2010.

References 

  1. Global Alert and Response . Cumulative number of confirmed human cases of avian influenza A/(H5N1) reported to WHO, World Health Organization. 14 January 2009. Switzerland, Geneva. Available at: 2009;http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2009_01_14/en/index.html[last accessed January 2009]
  2. Li KS, Guan Y, Wang J, Smith GJD, Xu KM, Duan L, et al. Genesis of a dominant, highly pathogenic, potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia. Nature. 2004;430:209–213
  3. Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, et al. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature. 2005;437:209–214
  4. Gilbert M, Xiao X, Chaitaweesub P, Kalpravidh W, Premashthira S, Boles S, et al. Avian influenza, domestic ducks and rice agriculture in Thailand. Agri Eco Env. 2007;119:409–415
  5. Gilbert M, Xiao X, Pfeiffer DU, Epprecht M, Boles S, Czarnecki C, et al. Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2008;105:4769–4774
  6. Kuo HI, Chen CC, Tseng WC, Ju L, Huang BW. Assessing impacts of SARS and avian flu on international tourism demand to Asia. Tourism Manag. 2008;29:917–928
  7. Kuo HI, Lu CL, Tseng WC, Li HA. A spatiotemporal statistical model of the risk factors of human cases of H5N1 avian influenza in Southeast Asian countries and China. Public Health. 2009;123:188–193
  8. Earhart KC, Elsayed NM, Saad MD, Gubareva LV, Nayel A, Deyde VM, et al. Oseltamivir resistance mutation N294S in human influenza A (H5N1) virus in Egypt. J Infect Public Health. 2009;2:74–80
  9. Dudley JP. Age-specific infection and death rates for human A (H5N1) avian influenza in Egypt. Euro Surveill. 2009;14:19198
  10. Schroedl A. Age-based human influenza A virus (H5N1) infection patterns, Egypt. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010;16:161–162
  11. Fasina FO, Ifende VI, Ajibade AA. Avian influenza A (H5N1) in humans: lessons from Egypt. Euro Surveill. 2010;15:19473
  12. World Report . Egypt battles with avian influenza. Lancet. 2007;370:553–554
  13. Saad MD, Ahmed LS, Gamal-Eldein MA, Fouda MK, Khalil FM, Yingst SL, et al. Possible avian influenza (H5N1) from migratory birds, Egypt. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007;13:1120–1121
  14. Brookmeyer R, Blades N. Statistical models and bioterrorism: application to the U.S. anthrax outbreak. J Am Stat Assoc. 2003;98:781–788
  15. Chen JM, Chen JW, Dai JJ, Sun YX. A survey of human cases of H5N1 avian influenza reported by the WHO before June 2006 for infection control. Am J Infect Control. 2007;35:467–469
  16. Kauod HA. HPAI epidemic in Egypt: evaluation, risk factors and dynamic of spreading. Int J Poul Sci. 2007;6:983–988
  17. Huai Y, Xiang N, Zhou L, Feng L, Peng Z, Chapman RS, et al. Incubation period for human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) infection, China. Emerg Infect Dis. 2008;14:1819–1821
  18. Hien TT, Liem NT, Dung NT, San LT, Mai PP, Chau NV, et al. Avian influenza A (H5N1) in 10 patients in Vietnam. N Engl J Med. 2004;350:1179–1188
  19. Areechokchai D, Jiraphongsa C, Laosiritaworn Y, Hanshaoworakul W, O’Reilly M. Centers for disease control and prevention. Investigation of avian influenza (H5N1) outbreak in humans—Thailand. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2006;55:3–6
  20. Oner AF, Bay A, Arslan S, Akdeniz H, Sahin HA, Cesur Y, et al. Avian influenza A (H5N1) infection in eastern Turkey in 2006. N Engl J Med. 2006;355:2179–2185
  21. Writing Committee of the Second World Health Organization . Consultation on clinical aspects of human infection with avian influenza A (H5N1). Update on avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection in humans. N Engl J Med. 2008;358:261–273
  22. Global Alert and Response . Situation updates-avian influenza, World Health Organization. Switzerland, Geneva. Available at: 2009;http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/updates/en/index.html[last accessed January 2009]
  23. Haining R, Law J, Griffith D. Modeling small area counts in the presence of overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation. Comp Stat Data Anal. 2009;53:2923–2937
  24. Martinez-Granado M. Self-employment and labour market transitions: a multiple state model. C.E.P.R; 2002;Discussion Papersp. 3661
  25. Sciulli D. Making the Italian labor market more flexible: an evaluation of the Treu reform. Departamento de economía working paper. Madrid: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; 2006;pp. 06–34
  26. Liu KJ, Chang KC. Interval estimation of odds ratio in a stratified randomized clinical trial with noncompliance. Comput Stat Data Anal. 2009;53:2754–2766
  27. Kaufmann AF, Meltzer MI, Schmid GP. The economic impact of a bioterrorist attack: are prevention and postattack intervention programs justifiable?. Emerg Infect Dis. 1997;3:83–94
  28. Yu H, Gao Z, Feng Z, Shu Y, Xiang N, Zhou L, et al. Clinical characteristics of 26 human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection in China. PLoS ONE. 2008;3:e2985
  29. Normile D, Enserink M. Avian influenza: with change in the seasons, bird flu returns. Science. 2007;26:448
  30. Li FCK, Choi BCK, Sly T, Pak AWP. Finding the real case-fatality rate of H5N1 avian influenza. J Epidemiol Commun Health. 2008;62:555–559
  31. Nishiura H. Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness. Emerg Themes Epidemiol. 2007;4:1–12

PII: S0033-3506(10)00119-8

doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2010.04.002

Public Health
Volume 124, Issue 8 , Pages 452-459 , August 2010

Article Tools