Public Health
Volume 121, Issue 9 , Pages 700-720 , September 2007

Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

  • G. Christakos

      Affiliations

    • Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182-4493, USA
    • Corresponding Author InformationCorresponding author.
    • ,
  • R.A. Olea

      Affiliations

    • USGS, MS 956, Reston, VA 20192, USA
    • Consultant, Lawrence KS 66044, USA
    • ,
  • H.-L. Yu

      Affiliations

    • Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182-4493, USA

Received 22 June 2006 ,Revised 30 November 2006 ,Accepted 13 December 2006.

References 

  1. Langer WL. The Black Death. Sci Am. 1964;210:114–121
  2. McNeill WH. Plagues and peoples. New York, NY: Anchor Books; 1977;
  3. Klein I. Plague, policy and popular unrest in British India. Mod Asian Stud. 1988;22:723–755
  4. Biel TL. The Black Death. San Diego, CA: Books Inc.; 1989;
  5. Benedictow OJ. The Black Death 1346–1353: the complete history. Suffolk, UK: The Boydell Press; 2004;
  6. Biraben JN. Les hommes et La Peste en France et dans les Pays Européens et Méditerranéens—Tome I, La Peste dans l’histoire. Paris, France: Mouton; 1975;
  7. Twigg G. The Black Death. A biological reappraisal. London, UK: Batsford Academic & Educational; 1984;
  8. Cantor NF. In the wake of the plague. The Black Death and the world it made. New York, NY: The Free Press; 2001;
  9. Christakos G, Olea RA, Serre ML, Yu HL, Wang L. Interdisciplinary public health reasoning and epidemic modelling: the case of Black Death. New York, NY: Springer; 2005;
  10. Hirst LF. The conquest of plague. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press; 1953;
  11. Kohn GC. Encyclopedia of plague and pestilence. New York, NY: Facts on File, Inc.; 2001;
  12. Snodgrass ME. World epidemics. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co., Inc.; 2003;
  13. Yu H-L, Christakos G. Spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of the bubonic plague epidemic in India. Int J Health Geogr. 2006;5:12
  14. Carpentier E. Une ville devant la Peste-Orvieto et la Peste Noir 1348. 2nd ed. Brussels, Belgium: De Boeck; 1993;
  15. Carmichael AG. Bubonic plague: the Black Death. In:  Kiple FF editors. Plague, pox and pestilence. London, UK: Weidenfeld & Nicolson; 1997;p. 60–67
  16. Raoult D, Aboudharam G, Crubezy E, Larrouy G, Ludes B, Drancourt M. Molecular identification by ‘suicide PCR’ of Yersinia pestis as the agent of medieval Black Death. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2000;97:12800–12803
  17. Shrewsbury JF. A history of bubonic plague in the British Isles. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 1970;
  18. Cohn SK. The Black Death transformed: disease and culture in early Renaissance Europe. London, UK: Arnold; 2002;
  19. Gilbert MT, Cuccui J, White W, Lynnerup N, Titball RW, Cooper A, et al. Absence of Yersinia pestis—specific DNA in human teeth from five European excavations of putative plague victims. Microbiology. 2004;150:341–354
  20. Scott S, Duncan C. Return of the Black Death: the world's greatest serial killer. New York, NY: Wiley & Sons; 2004;
  21. Christakos G. Spatiotemporal comparative analysis of plague—an interdisciplinary perspective. Invited commentary. Workshop on the identity of plague. The Wellcome Trust Centre for the History of Medicine at UCL, London, UK, April 5, 2006.
  22. Fotheringham AS, Btunsdon C, Charlton M. Quantitative geography. London, UK: Sage; 2000;
  23. Gatrell AC. Geographies of health. Malden, MA: Blackwell; 2002;
  24. Haining R. Spatial data analysis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2003;
  25. Cliff AD, Haggett P. Spatial aspects of epidemic control. Prog Hum Geog. 1989;13:315–437
  26. Mollison D. Epidemic models. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 1995;
  27. Langford IH. Using empirical Bayes estimates in the geographical analysis of disease risk. Area. 1994;26:142–149
  28. Cromley EK, McLafferty SL. GIS and public health. New York, NY: The Guilford Press; 2002;
  29. Koch T. Cartography of diseases: maps, mapping, and medicine. New York, NY: ESRI Press; 2005;
  30. Haggett P. The geographical structure of epidemics. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press; 2000;
  31. Ricketts TC. Geographic information systems and public health. Annu Rev Public Health. 2003;24:1–6
  32. Nuckols JR, Ward MH, Jarup L. Using geographic information systems for exposure assessment in environmental epidemiology studies. Environ Health Perspect. 2004;112:1007–1015
  33. Trevelyan B, Smallman-Raynor M, Cliff AD. The spatial dynamics of poliomyelitis in the United States: from epidemic emergence to vaccine-induced retreat, 1910–1971. Ann Assoc Am Geogr. 2005;95:269–293
  34. Lucey BT, Russell CA, Smith D, Wilson ML, Long A, Waller LA, et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of epizootic raccoon rabies propagation in Connecticut, 1991–1995. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2002;2:77–86
  35. Chevallier E, Grand A, Azais J-M. Spatial and temporal distribution of cholera in Ecuador between 1991 and 1996. Eur J Public Health. 2004;14:274–279
  36. Carrat F, Valleron AJ. Epidemiologic mapping using the ‘kriging’ method: application to an influenza-like illness epidemic in France. Am J Epidemiol. 1992;135:1293–1300
  37. Sakai T, Suzuki H, Sasaki A, Saito R, Tanabe N, Taniguchi K. Geographic and temporal trends in influenza-like illness, Japan, 1992–1999. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004;10:1822–1826
  38. Christakos G, Lai J. A study of the breast cancer dynamics in North Carolina. Soc Sci Med. 1997;45:1503–1517
  39. Mugglin AS, Cressie N, Gemmell I. Hierarchical statistical modeling of influenza epidemic dynamics in space and time. Stat Med. 2002;21:2703–2721
  40. Griffith DA, Layne LJ. A casebook for spatial statistical data analysis. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press; 2002;
  41. Christakos G. On certain classes of spatiotemporal random fields with application to space–time data processing. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybernat. 1991;21:861–875
  42. Christakos G. Random field models in earth sciences. Academic Press, San Diego; 1992. New edition, Mineola, NY: Dover Publications, Inc.; 2005.
  43. Goodall C, Mardia KV. Challenges in multivariate spatio-temporal modeling. Proceedings of the XVIIth international biometric conference, 8–12 August 1994, Hamilton, Ont., Canada, 1994. p. 1–17.
  44. Haas TC. Local prediction of spatio-temporal process with an application to wet sulfate deposition. J Am Stat Assoc. 1995;90:1189–1199
  45. Bogaert P. Comparison of kriging techniques in a space–time context. Math Geol. 1996;28:73–86
  46. Jones RH, Zhang Y. Models for continuous stationary space–time processes. In:  Gregoire TG,  Brillinger DR,  Diggle PJ,  Russek-Cohen E,  Warren WG,  Wolfinger RD editor. Modelling longitudinal and spatially correlated data. New York: Springer; 1997;p. 289–298
  47. Christakos G, Hristopulos DT. Spatiotemporal environmental health modelling. Boston, MA: Kluwer; 1998;
  48. Kyriakidis PC, Journel AG. Geostatistical space–time models: a review. Math Geol. 1999;31:651–684
  49. Gneiting T. Stationary covariance functions for space–time data. J Am Stat Assoc. 2002;97:590–600
  50. Ma C. Spatio-temporal stationary covariance models. J Multivariate Anal. 2003;86:97–107
  51. Kolovos A, Christakos G, Hristopulos DT, Serre ML. Methods for generating non-separable spatiotemporal covariance models with potential environmental applications. Adv Water Resour. 2004;27:815–830
  52. Stein ML. Space–time covariance functions. J Am Stat Assoc. 2005;100:310–321
  53. Porcu E, Gregori P, Mateu J. Nonseparable stationary anisotropic space time covariance functions. Stoch Env Res Risk A. 2006;21:113–122
  54. Anderson H, Britton T. Stochastic epidemic models and their statistical analysis. New York, NY: Springer; 2000;
  55. Christakos G. Modern spatiotemporal geostatistics. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 2000;
  56. Christakos G, Bogaert P, Serre ML. Temporal GIS. New York, NY: Springer; 2002;
  57. Kovitz J, Christakos G. Spatial statistics of clustered data. Stoch Env Res Risk A. 2004;18:147–166
  58. Olea RA, Christakos G. Duration assessment of urban mortality for the 14th century Black Death epidemic. Hum Biol. 2005;77:291–303
  59. Yu H-L, Kolovos A, Christakos A, Chen J-C, Warmerdam S, Dev B. Interactive spatiotemporal modelling of health systems: the SEKS-GUI framework. Stoch Env Res & Risk Ass. 2007;21:in press
  60. Scott S, Duncan C. Biology of plagues. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2001;
  61. Hankin EH. On the epidemiology of plague. J Hyg-Cambridge. 1905;5:48–83
  62. Cliff AD, Haggett P. Methods for measuring epidemic velocity from time-series data. Int J Epidemiol. 1981;11:82–89
  63. Andenmatten B, Morerod JD. La peste à Lausanne au XIV siècle (1348/1349, 1360). Etudes Lett. 1987;2–3:19–49
  64. Brooks RJ. The influence of saturation deficiency and of temperature on the course of epidemic plague. J Hyg-Cambridge. 1917;5:881–899
  65. Seal SC. Epidemiological studies of plague in India: 1. The present position. Bull World Health Organ. 1969;23:283–292

PII: S0033-3506(07)00014-5

doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2006.12.011

Public Health
Volume 121, Issue 9 , Pages 700-720 , September 2007

Article Tools

* Image Usage & Resolution